Six months after overhauling its statistical data under pressure of sanctions by the International Monetary Fund, Argentina is taking the fund to task for what it says are inaccurate forecasts.
The fund’s World Economic Outlook forecasts for Argentina have been off by an average of five percentage points between 2000 and 2013, Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said in a letter to the fund today.
The IMF expects Argentina’s economy to contract 1.7 percent this year, whereas the government predicts gross domestic product will expand 0.5 percent. Kicillof traveled to Washington today to attend the World Bank and IMF’s annual meetings.
“We are concerned with the WEO forecasts, particularly regarding Argentina,” Kicillof said in the letter. “In a constructive way we tend to see this as further reason for the IEO recommendations for improving the fund’s forecasting methods.
When forecasts for a particular economy are completely out of line persistently, the underlying model or accepted wisdom about that economy should be revised in order to add value to the forecast.”
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government unveiled a new national consumer price index in February and revised growth numbers numbers in March by establishing a new base year for calculation after Argentina became the first country to be threatened with sanctions by the Washington-based IMF for the inaccuracy of its data.
Doubt over the statistics has resurfaced as figures diverge from private estimates, said Eric Ritondale, an economist at Buenos Aires-based research firm Econviews.
Second Quarter
Argentina’s GDP (ARGQPYOX) was unchanged in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the government.
That compares with a 1.7 percent contraction estimated by JPMorgan Chase & Co. A survey carried out by the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office found that 24 percent of country officials thought the Fund’s forecasts are either too high or too low.
In global financial institutions that number rose to 50 percent, according to a report on IMF forecasts published by the IEO in February.
While IMF projections tend to be conservative, underestimating both growth and contraction, its forecast for Argentine GDP this year is closer to reality than the government’s, said Ritondale, who expects GDP to contract by 2 percent in 2014.
“The criticisms don’t only apply to Argentina, but that’s one thing, and another is what’s happening right now in Argentina with growth and the government’s numbers, which don’t reflect what’s going on,” Ritondale said.
bloomberg.com
The fund’s World Economic Outlook forecasts for Argentina have been off by an average of five percentage points between 2000 and 2013, Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said in a letter to the fund today.
The IMF expects Argentina’s economy to contract 1.7 percent this year, whereas the government predicts gross domestic product will expand 0.5 percent. Kicillof traveled to Washington today to attend the World Bank and IMF’s annual meetings.
“We are concerned with the WEO forecasts, particularly regarding Argentina,” Kicillof said in the letter. “In a constructive way we tend to see this as further reason for the IEO recommendations for improving the fund’s forecasting methods.
When forecasts for a particular economy are completely out of line persistently, the underlying model or accepted wisdom about that economy should be revised in order to add value to the forecast.”
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government unveiled a new national consumer price index in February and revised growth numbers numbers in March by establishing a new base year for calculation after Argentina became the first country to be threatened with sanctions by the Washington-based IMF for the inaccuracy of its data.
Doubt over the statistics has resurfaced as figures diverge from private estimates, said Eric Ritondale, an economist at Buenos Aires-based research firm Econviews.
Second Quarter
Argentina’s GDP (ARGQPYOX) was unchanged in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the government.
That compares with a 1.7 percent contraction estimated by JPMorgan Chase & Co. A survey carried out by the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office found that 24 percent of country officials thought the Fund’s forecasts are either too high or too low.
In global financial institutions that number rose to 50 percent, according to a report on IMF forecasts published by the IEO in February.
While IMF projections tend to be conservative, underestimating both growth and contraction, its forecast for Argentine GDP this year is closer to reality than the government’s, said Ritondale, who expects GDP to contract by 2 percent in 2014.
“The criticisms don’t only apply to Argentina, but that’s one thing, and another is what’s happening right now in Argentina with growth and the government’s numbers, which don’t reflect what’s going on,” Ritondale said.
bloomberg.com
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