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Monday, February 18, 2013

Mexico's Economy Likely Lost Some Steam in Fourth Quarter

MEXICO CITY--Mexico's economy likely lost some steam in the fourth quarter as the export-engine of Latin America's second-largest economy continued suffering from weak demand north of the border.


Mexico's gross domestic product is expected to have expanded 3% in the October-December period compared with a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 14 economists polled by Dow Jones. GDP grew 3.3% in the third quarter.

For the full year, analysts estimate the economy to have grown 3.9%, roughly in line with government expectations of 4%.

If confirmed, that would make Mexico a mid-performer in the region, far from the 6% growth in Peru but much better than the faltering economies of more comparable giants such as Brazil and Argentina.

The Bank of Mexico estimated this week that GDP grew 3.3% on the year in the fourth quarter, and that it expanded 0.8% from the third quarter in seasonally adjusted terms.

Mexico's statistics agency is scheduled to report fourth-quarter GDP figures Monday at 9 a.m. EST.

The likely slowdown during the fourth quarter would be explained mainly by weaker exports, affected by the fiscal uncertainty that prevailed late last year in the U.S., Mexico's main trade partner, and moderate growth in industrial production there.

Mexico's economic performance is closely linked to that of the U.S., where Mexico sends close to 80% of its exports, mainly manufactured products for the auto and other industries, but also crude oil and fresh food such as fruit and vegetables.

The importance of the export engine for Mexico is highlighted by the fact that the value of the exports and imports accounts for 60% of the country's GDP.

Household consumption, construction activities, and agricultural production, key drivers of domestic demand, are seen broadly stable compared with the previous quarter.

For coming months, Mexican authorities are expecting economic growth to remain sluggish in the first semester and pick up later this year. Mexico's central bank estimates the country's GDP will expand between 3% and 4% in 2013.

nasdaq.com

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