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Thursday, December 13, 2012

Brazil's Tombini: Stable Rates to Support Recovery, Low Inflation

BRASILIA--The maintenance of Brazil's interest rates for a prolonged period of time will be sufficient to support a gradual recovery of the economy and keep inflation on target, Brazil's central bank president Alexandre Tombini said Tuesday.


Speaking at an appearance before the Brazilian Senate Economic Affairs Committee, Mr. Tombini said that despite a continued adverse outlook abroad, local economic policies currently in place would assure a rebound of investment and growth following a slowdown seen this year.

"A gradual recovery of activity in Brazil is in course that should continue in 2013," the bank president said.

Mr. Tombini noted that measures to restore confidence and growth had been taken by authorities in key economies abroad, but that these may not be sufficient to bring a strong international recovery.

"In recent months important measures were announced that reduce the chance of extreme events, but these aren't ready to bring growth," he said, adding, "The international outlook continues to be for low growth for a prolonged period."

In particular, he said that debt negotiations in Europe and the U.S. continued to bring risks to a global recovery.

He said China was preparing to reestablish a trend of expansion, but said its outlook "is for growth somewhat below recent years."

In the meantime, the official said Brazil's central bank remains "vigilant" on inflation and would continue its efforts to bring inflation toward the country's 4.5% inflation target with stable interest rates.

Brazil's central bank in recent months has held the country's benchmark Selic interest rate record low of 7.25%.

Mr. Tombini acknowledged that low growth of around 0.9% in the third quarter brought frustration, but said that it was in line with the performance of other economies around the globe.

"In relation to countries in the G-20, the performance of the Brazilian economy was very reasonable," he said. He further noted that foreign direct investment remained robust and that the government in the meantime was taking measures to improve investment rates in the country.

"The diagnosis is clear, measures are being taken, and investments will take off in the coming semesters," he said.

Brazilian credit Mr. Tombini said, remained in moderate expansion, and local banks continued to be "healthy and well- provisioned" despite difficulties faced by a small group of institutions following the international credit crisis in 2008.

As part of its policy to maintain local economic stability, Mr. Tombini said the central bank would seek to minimize volatility in the foreign exchange markets.

"Our floating exchange regime shouldn't be seen as a reason for bets on volatility," he said.

Brazil's central bank has recently intervened in the currency market and introduced measures to hold the currency stable at a level between BRL2.05 and BRL2.10 to the dollar.

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