BUENOS AIRES -(Dow Jones)- Argentina's economy probably cooled in the fourth quarter from the breakneck pace of expansion observed in previous quarters owing to a slowdown in manufacturing and worsening consumer sentiment.
The national statistics agency, Indec, is expected to report that fourth- quarter gross domestic product expanded 7.0% on the year, according to the median estimate of six economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
The forecast is in line with Indec's monthly economic activity indicator, known as Emae, that encompasses most components of GDP.
A closely watched gauge of consumer confidence published by Torcuato di Tella University deteriorated throughout the fourth quarter, while activity in the key automobile sector slumped in December.
Indec is scheduled to publish fourth-quarter GDP at 3 p.m. EDT Monday.
Indec, however, is believed to overstate economic growth, and there is widespread belief by economists and the general public that the government significantly underreports inflation.
Most private-sector forecasters peg inflation at between 20% and 25%, while Indec's latest estimate was 9.7%.
Indec's credibility has been put in doubt ever since former President Nestor Kirchner replaced its long-serving staffers with political appointees. Official and private-sector forecasts of inflation quickly diverged following those personnel changes.
Argentina's economy expanded 8.8% last year, according to the Emae series.
The economy benefited from strong exports, lax monetary and fiscal policy and a consumer-spending spree at home fueled by wage increases that are even greater than the inflation rate.
Argentina is expected to post strong, though less impressive growth this year amid an uncertain economic outlook for its top trading partner, Brazil, and the government's growing intervention in the economy.
On the home front, businesses and consumers are struggling to adapt to a host of foreign exchange and import controls that President Cristina Kirchner has put in place since she won re-election in October.
The Kirchner administration says the measures are aimed at streamlining import regulations and fighting tax evasion. But critics say the real goal of the controls is to protect the central bank's international reserves by limiting hard-currency outflows.
The central bank's latest forecast puts GDP growth at 6% this year, though many economists have less rosy estimates.
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The national statistics agency, Indec, is expected to report that fourth- quarter gross domestic product expanded 7.0% on the year, according to the median estimate of six economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
The forecast is in line with Indec's monthly economic activity indicator, known as Emae, that encompasses most components of GDP.
A closely watched gauge of consumer confidence published by Torcuato di Tella University deteriorated throughout the fourth quarter, while activity in the key automobile sector slumped in December.
Indec is scheduled to publish fourth-quarter GDP at 3 p.m. EDT Monday.
Indec, however, is believed to overstate economic growth, and there is widespread belief by economists and the general public that the government significantly underreports inflation.
Most private-sector forecasters peg inflation at between 20% and 25%, while Indec's latest estimate was 9.7%.
Indec's credibility has been put in doubt ever since former President Nestor Kirchner replaced its long-serving staffers with political appointees. Official and private-sector forecasts of inflation quickly diverged following those personnel changes.
Argentina's economy expanded 8.8% last year, according to the Emae series.
The economy benefited from strong exports, lax monetary and fiscal policy and a consumer-spending spree at home fueled by wage increases that are even greater than the inflation rate.
Argentina is expected to post strong, though less impressive growth this year amid an uncertain economic outlook for its top trading partner, Brazil, and the government's growing intervention in the economy.
On the home front, businesses and consumers are struggling to adapt to a host of foreign exchange and import controls that President Cristina Kirchner has put in place since she won re-election in October.
The Kirchner administration says the measures are aimed at streamlining import regulations and fighting tax evasion. But critics say the real goal of the controls is to protect the central bank's international reserves by limiting hard-currency outflows.
The central bank's latest forecast puts GDP growth at 6% this year, though many economists have less rosy estimates.
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