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Saturday, February 22, 2014

Voices: Where are the diplomats to help Latin America?

MIAMI - The urgent scramble by diplomats from European Union nations to end the bloodshed in Ukraine underscores just how different things are in Latin America, where Venezuelan protesters seem to be on their own.

The demonstrations in Ukraine deteriorated quickly this week, leaving more than 100 dead. EU leaders used their economic might to force the Ukrainian government to the negotiating table to reach a truce with protesters in Kiev.

When the truce collapsed Thursday morning, EU ministers voted to impose sanctions. While it's too soon to tell if those efforts will end the violence, the mere possibility serves as a vivid reminder of the lack of options for Latin American nations.

The Venezuelan capital of Caracas has been gripped by its own protests for weeks, with tens of thousands marching to oppose President Nicolás Maduro, who replaced Hugo Chávez after the socialist leader died last year.

The violence has not reached the levels seen in Kiev - five people have died in the Venezuelan protests. But if the violence escalates, there is little that the country's neighbors, or other world powers, can do to stop it.

Institutions like the Organization of American States and its Inter-American Court of Human Rights were designed, in part, to protect the basic rights and freedoms of people in the Western hemisphere.

But Peter Schechter, director of the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center at the nonpartisan Atlantic Council, said those institutions have become irrelevant or woefully underfunded, leaving them with little practical influence over its member countries.

"There are really very few institutions that remain in (Latin American) countries to publicly and privately make their cases that certain things have to stop," Schechter said during a visit to Miami this week. That largely leaves economic sanctions as a way to influence the actions of the Venezuelan government.

Latin American countries have long tried to establish trade partnerships throughout the region to help countries influence the actions of their neighbors. But the list of failed, or underperforming, Latin American trade partnerships is merely a stream of random letters- LAFTA, ALBA, CALC, LAIA, CELAC.

That has left many countries in Latin America trading more with countries overseas. Brazil, which boasts the region's largest economy, lists only one Latin American country - Argentina - among its top trading partners.

Brazil does more business with Germany, the Netherlands and South Korea than it does with most of its neighbors. Mexico, which has the second-largest economy in the region, trades mostly with the United States and China.

That lack of economic cooperation makes it difficult for regional leaders to press Venezuela's government to come to the table if the situation deteriorates.

That leaves the U.S.

Despite the anti-American rhetoric of Venezuelan leaders Chávez and Maduro, the U.S. remains Venezuela's biggest trade partner.

But even if the U.S. imposes trade sanctions against the country, Schechter said Venezuela has a unique advantage that would allow its leaders to sidestep any fear of economic disaster.

It sits on the largest oil reserve in the world. "If the United States doesn't buy their oil, China will," Schechter said. "Someone will buy that stuff."

On Tuesday, one of the leaders of the opposition movement, Leopoldo Lopez, turned himself in to Venezuelan authorities while urging protesters to maintain peace and civility.

Venezuelans in New York, Miami and cities around the globe are watching closely to see what happens next. Whether the protesters win concessions from the government or slowly fade back into their daily lives, the hope remains that the protests remain peaceful. Because if they don't, there may not be anyone who can help.

rgj.com

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