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Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Brazil Industry Suffers As Strong Real Stokes Imports

RIO DE JANEIRO -(Dow Jones)- Output at Brazil's mines and factories continued to slow in July as growth in Latin America's largest economy buckles under the weight of towering interest rates and a strong currency that has fueled a flood of cheap imports.

July's 0.5% growth in industrial production, which followed a 1.2% slide in June, was affected by "the greater presence of imported products and lower demand in the domestic market," said Andre Luiz Macedo, coordinator of the industrial output survey at the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, or IBGE. Higher interest rates and other measures aimed at reining in credit and tamping down domestic demand are being reflected in industrial production, Macedo said.

Brazil to end rate rises as slowdown mounts

RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank will likely call a halt to this year's flurry of interest rate hikes on Wednesday as it responds to growing signs of a slowdown in Latin America's largest economy.

With annual inflation running above 7 percent, policymakers will be reluctant to start reducing the country's lofty borrowing costs just yet and are expected by economists to leave the benchmark Selic rate at 12.5 percent.

Vivendi profits boosted by games and Brazilian business

Vivendi, Europe's biggest telecom and entertainment group, has reported results boosted by its games business and its Brazilian unit.

The company's net profit came in at 3.31bn euros ($4.78bn; £2.93bn) for the first six months of the year, which was 58.8% up on the same period last year.

Monday, August 29, 2011

Mining companies agree to pay Peru an extra billion dollars annually

Peru has reached an agreement with mining companies that will raise the industry’s annual payments to the government to about one billion dollars, the government said on Thursday, fulfilling a campaign promise by President Ollanta Humala.

Humala took office in late July, vowing to tax mining companies' windfall profits to bolster social programs in a country where one of every three people is poor. Mining accounts for 60% of Peru's export revenue.

Brazil loosing industry to Mercosur members with cheaper costs and lower taxes

The strong growth of the Brazilian economy, almost to full capacity, and the Super Real have Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay increasingly attracting Brazilian companies while factories and jobs are lost to Mercosur members, complain industry leaders.

“Business missions sent by the governments of Uruguay, Paraguay and other Latin American countries are frequently visiting Brazil and meeting with associations from the different industrial sectors with the purpose of attracting them to invest in their countries. The bait is not the potential of local markets but more competitive costs than in Brazil”, said Raquel Landim in a piece for O Estado de Sao Paulo.

Latin American central banks ready to reverse policy and cut interest rates

Brazil and Chile have anticipated such a possibility and Mexico on Friday stunned markets by opening the door to rate cuts.

The region’s policymakers were among the most aggressive in tightening policy after the global financial crisis. They may now be among the first to start easing, following in the footsteps of Denmark, Turkey and Switzerland.

Commerce secretary Rahul Khullar heads to LatAm in Panama and Colombia for FTA talks

NEW DELHI: After shunning Latin America two years ago, the government is now seeking closer economic ties with the region as part of its initiative to diversify markets for Indian merchandise.

Commerce secretary Rahul Khullar will be visiting Latin America this week to explore avenues of improving economic cooperation with the countries of the region. Khullar, who will be leading a high-level business delegation, will also look into the possibility of signing free trade agreements (FTAs) with Panama and Colombia, which could serve as a gateway to Latin America.

Latin American stocks up; Brazil adds 2%

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Latin American markets strengthened Monday as U.S. stocks got a boost from better-than-expected July consumer spending figures and an optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week.

In Brazil, home of the biggest stock exchange in Latin America, the Bovespa BR:BVSP +2.75% gained 2.2% to 54,507.86. It had climbed 0.8% on Friday.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

The week in Latin America: Unrest continues in Chile

Here are stories that made headlines this week in Latin America, and highlights from our coverage of the region by Times reporters and your blogger here at La Plaza:

1 dead in Chile national strike

A two-day national strike in Chile led to hundreds of injuries, more than a thousand arrests and the death of a teenage boy after violent clashes between workers and students and Chilean police. The strike was the latest large-scale demonstration challenging the conservative government of President Sebastian Pinera, Chile's first non-leftist leader since the return to democracy.

Friday, August 26, 2011

U.K. Economic Expansion Slowed to 0.2% in Second Quarter

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. economic growth slowed in the second quarter as manufacturing shrank, adding pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron to do more to boost the economy.

Gross domestic product rose 0.2 percent, the same as estimated a month ago, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 30 economists was for 0.2 percent growth. Output rose 0.7 percent from a year earlier.

LatAm, Asia leaders to boost cooperation

Leaders at a gathering of nations from Latin America and Asia, including Australia, has called for closer economic cooperation to help combat the global financial crisis.

Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman kicked off Thursday's gathering by underlining 'the need for concrete actions to strengthen biregional political and economic ties'.

Making the desert bloom

The Mexican economy has recovered somewhat from a scorching recession imported from America, but is still hobbled by domestic monopolies and cartels.

HOT and high in the Sierra Madre, the city of Saltillo is a long way from Wall Street. Stuffed goats keep an eye on customers in the high-street vaquera, or cowboy outfitter, where workers from the local car factories blow their pesos on snakeskin boots and $100 Stetsons. Pinstriped suits and silk ties are outnumbered by checked shirts and silver belt-buckles; pickups are prized over Porsches.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

New Report Touts Latin American Commercial Property Markets

A new report published by CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) has identified Latin America as a fast-emerging market for commercial real estate (CRE) investors and corporate occupiers.

According to "The Outlook for Latin America's Commercial Real Estate Markets," Latin America's CRE market conditions are mostly strong - Mexico is the main exception. Healthy consumer spending and commodity-driven economic growth is fueling the region's retail centers and housing markets and driving demand for office and industrial space, the report says, while net absorption of commercial space in Latin America is expected to enjoy the support of multinational firms and domestic sources.

Making the desert bloom

The Mexican economy has recovered somewhat from a scorching recession imported from America, but is still hobbled by domestic monopolies and cartels

HOT and high in the Sierra Madre, the city of Saltillo is a long way from Wall Street. Stuffed goats keep an eye on customers in the high-street vaquera, or cowboy outfitter, where workers from the local car factories blow their pesos on snakeskin boots and $100 Stetsons. Pinstriped suits and silk ties are outnumbered by checked shirts and silver belt-buckles; pickups are prized over Porsches.

LatAm currencies mixed before Bernanke speech

Aug 25 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies traded mixed against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, with the Mexican peso gaining and Brazil's real weakening, on the day before a planned address by the head of the U.S. central bank.

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is scheduled to give an address to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday at an annual gathering of world economists and central bankers in the Rocky Mountains.

Brazil real, Mexican peso slides; Chile's gains

RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies weakened or trimmed gains against the U.S. dollar in late trading on Wednesday as investors judged the prospects for world economic growth to be weak.

The declines came as business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, dropped to its lowest level in 14 months and after Moody's Investors Service cut Japan's debt rating to Aa3 from Aa2.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Growth and Opportunity in Commercial Real Estate Stronger in Latin America

Latin America has emerged as an important destination for both investors and corporate occupiers as commercial real estate conditions are strong in most of the region’s major markets, according to a new CB Richard Ellis Special Report, The Outlook for Latin America’s Commercial Real Estate Markets.

The report, prepared by Lopez-Beltran and Asieh Mansour, CBRE’s Head of Americas Research, analyzes economic and real estate conditions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Panama.

Latin America: markets, leaders react to new economic crisis

Fears of a renewed global recession, coupled with concerns about public debt in Europe, forced down Latin American markets on Aug. 18. The most important market in the region, Brazil's BM&FBOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias & Futuros de São Paulo), fell 3.52 % for the day, while in Argentina the MERVAL index plunged 4.11%. In Mexico City the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) was down 2.36%; the IGBC index in Colombia fell by 3.15% and Chile's IPSA by 1.89%.

There were reports of "pessimism" among regional leaders. Latin American economies have generally performed better than the European and US economies after the financial crisis of 2008, but there is concern about the region's transnational companies, the "traslatinas." "These companies are the ones that depend the most on the global economy, because of the importance of exports," economist Alexandre Póvoa wrote in the Brazilian economic review Exame.

Latin American alliance confronts economic crisis

by: W. T. Whitney Jr.

The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) has emerged from a bevy of regional alliances to assume a major role in work toward Latin American integration. With the Paraguayan Senate's approval August 13 of Paraguay's entry into UNSUR, the alliance now includes all 12 South American nations.

UNASUR has, since 2008, carried out independent, cooperative planning in a variety of areas, but none of them economic. Now, debt crises, worldwide economic slowdown, and a possible devaluation of the U.S. dollar have impelled them to action. What is needed, according to the Argentinean Communist Party newspaper Nuestra Propuesta, is "a common strategy to shield South America from contamination by the so-called 'central countries'...profoundly sick and fully decadent."

Monday, August 22, 2011

Brazil hosts a homecoming

By Joe Leahy


Cassio Calil recalls how he watched the recent rise of Brazil while working in the skyscrapers of New York.

After joining JPMorgan’s investment bank in 2005, having first left Brazil in 1987 for more promising climes, he noticed more and more representatives of ambitious Brazilian companies intent on international expansion turning up in his office. After decades of missed opportunities, Latin America’s largest economy was on the move.

“I was watching Brazil growing and growing from the camarote of New York,” says Mr Calil, referring to the private boxes used by spectators during Carnival. “I was participating [in that] by helping our Brazilian clients with solutions, but I was sitting in Park Avenue and watching Faria Lima grow,” he says.

He began to ponder a return to his native country and, today, he is one of those sitting in an office in Faria Lima – the avenue most popular with investment banks in São Paulo – after being appointed head of JPMorgan Asset Management in Brazil this year.

Mr Calil is among a growing number of Brazilians with international expertise and experience who are returning to Brazil. They are helping Latin America’s largest economy deal with a shortage of managerial talent as it becomes ever more entwined in the global economy, particularly after China overtook the US as its biggest trading partner in 2009.

Brazil’s distinctive culture, the lack of English spoken at street level and the country’s labyrinthine politics and bureaucracy make it hard to import foreign talent. Meanwhile, the global financial crisis is also prompting more Brazilian expatriates to consider going back, according to executive search consultants.

“We are seeing senior expatriates returning home because of the great opportunities here, and others who are also coming back because of the downturn in the US and Europe,” says Daniel Santiago Faria, country manager of Brazil for Marks Sattin, an executive search consultancy.

Popular sectors include banking and engineering. There are even specific schemes to attract and retain Brazilians with international experience. Citigroup, for example, has implemented programmes at US MBA colleges to recruit Brazilian graduates.

The shortage of managerial talent is reflected in soaring salaries. A study by Dasein Executive Search last December found that company bosses in São Paulo were the world’s highest paid, with a chief executive in Brazil’s financial capital earning an average of $620,000 excluding bonuses, compared with $574,000 in New York and $550,000 for top bosses in London. The trend has been accentuated by the strengthening of Brazil’s currency, the real against the dollar, but has primarily been driven by demand for talent.

Other recent returnees include Reinaldo Garcia, Latin America chief executive of General Electric, Sergio Leifert, chief operating officer of Société Générale, and Charles Ferraz, chief investment officer at Brazil’s largest private bank, Itaú.

“You read a lot about opportunities in Latin America, but when you’re there you actually feel it,” says Mr Garcia, who grew up in Ribeirão Preto amid the sugar cane fields of São Paulo state before leaving 31 years ago for the US. “It is one thing to go and visit [Brazil] and another to actually live there.”

For most long-term expatriates, the subsequent rise of Brazil was almost inconceivable when they left the country. Thirty years ago, Brazil was governed by a military dictatorship presiding over a crisis-prone economy. The Chinese economic miracle was still in the future and China would only emerge as the great engine for Brazil’s commodity export sector in the mid-2000s. The ascent of Brazil’s so-called “C classes” – the lower middle class fostered by social welfare reforms and increases in the minimum wage over the past decade – was also still years away.

When Mr Calil left the old Brazil as a young man 24 years ago, he was meant to be visiting Hong Kong for only three months as part of a traineeship with IBM. Following stints in Japan, Australia and Ireland, he ended up in New York and switched to JPMorgan in 2005. By then, some of Brazil’s own companies were emerging on the international stage, led by the likes of Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest brewer, JBS, the world’s biggest meat processing company, and state-owned giants Petrobras and Vale.

Mr Garcia quit law school in São Paulo in 1980 to study economics in North Carolina. “There was a military government, inflation was very high, prospects for the future were not very great and there was not a feeling that you could control your own future,” he says.



He joined GE straight out of college and went on to head its important healthcare division, a career path that involved moving to different positions in the US and Europe, including the UK.

“I didn’t think I would actually ever work in Brazil,” he says.

But in December last year, Jeffrey Immelt, GE’s chief executive, asked Mr Garcia to return to Brazil to lead the Latin American operation. The move was part of GE’s efforts to allocate more autonomy to fast-growing regional markets.

Asked whether he feels Brazilians with international experience such as himself are in danger of being press-ganged into returning home to fill the talent gap because they are familiar with the language and the culture, Mr Garcia says his nationality “helped” but it was not the deciding factor.

“It has got to be putting the right person in the right job,” says Mr Garcia. “Jeff asked me: ‘I’d like you to go but you can say no.’ I really felt that I could absolutely say no, but I also felt that this is definitely the right place to be right now so I don’t think it’s a matter of forcing. There is a natural magnetic attraction to these markets now.”

Like Mr Garcia, Mr Calil rejects suggestions that Brazilians with international experience are in danger of being pigeonholed. He points out that the connections he had with Brazil as part of his working life were as important as actually being Brazilian: “Had I been outside Brazil and not connecting to Brazil – even though being Brazilian – I would have been less effective.”

Both men note how life in São Paulo has changed. The city is a more attractive place to live, although security is worse than 30 years ago, says Mr Garcia. Both mention the national sport – soccer – as one thing that kept them “Brazilian” during the long years away. “If I was watching a soccer World Cup, who would I cheer for?“ says Mr Calil. “It has been Brazil from the day I left.”

Source: http://www.ft.com

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Morgan Stanley Says Latin America May Slow With Global Recession

(Bloomberg) -- Growth in Latin America may see a "significant slowdown" if the U.S. and Europe return to recession, even though the region's economies are in a good enough financial shape to avoid a crisis, Morgan Stanley said.

"It may be too early to pronounce a global downturn, but there is little doubt that Latin America can't escape without seeing its growth path suffer," Morgan Stanley said in a report today.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Goldman Sachs GDP Cut Spurs Rate-Bet Delays: Mexico Credit

Mexican traders are postponing bets for interest-rate increases to August after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. lowered the country’s growth forecast amid concern the U.S. may relapse into recession.

Yields on futures for the 28-day interbank due in August, known as TIIE, sank 15 basis points in the past week to a record low 5.02 percent. The contracts indicate traders expect Banco de Mexico to leave its key rate unchanged at 4.5 percent until that month. They have delayed their estimates for a rate boost 14 times this year. In Brazil, traders are pricing in the possibility the central bank may lower borrowing costs by December after betting on an increase three weeks ago.