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Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Mexico Peso Implied Volatility Increases on Fed Stimulus Concern

Mexican peso implied volatility rose to a two-week high as an acceleration in U.S. manufacturing stoked concern the Federal Reserve will cut a stimulus program that has buoyed the Latin American country’s securities.

One-month implied volatility on options for the peso, which reflect traders’ projections for price fluctuations, climbed to 11.6 percent at 10:16 a.m. in Mexico City, the highest level on a closing basis since Nov. 12, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The peso fell 0.9 percent to 13.2282 per dollar. The peso extended losses as a report showed manufacturing unexpectedly grew at a faster pace last month in the U.S., Mexico’s biggest trading partner.

Concern that the Fed will pare its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases is overshadowing expectations for faster growth in Mexico’s economy as lawmakers prepare to consider legislation to allow more private investment in the country’s energy industry.

“There have been some swings in the market,” Ramon Cordova, a trader at Banco Base SA, said in a telephone interview from San Pedro Garza Garcia, Mexico “It’s related to the stimulus.”

The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing index increased in November to 57.3, the highest level since April 2011, from 56.4 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s report showed today. Readings above 50 indicate growth.

The median forecast of 77 economists was 55.1. Yields on peso bonds maturing in 2024 rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 6.28 percent today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

bloomberg.com

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