BUENOS AIRES--Argentina's economic activity rose on the month in July but is still down on the year, according to a survey of leading indicators published by Torcuato Di Tella University, or UTDT.
UTDT's leading indicators index rose 0.3% on the month to 184.73 in July, but was down 15.7% on the year.The rise was the first since March and just the second month-on-month gain seen over the past nine months, UTDT said.
UTDT's index started to decline sharply in October 2011 as economic activity stalled. UTDT said that the chance that the economy has hit an inflection point and will enter an expansionary phase over the next six months is 21.5%.
The index is conceptually similar to the Conference Board index in the U.S., which tries to predict turning points in the economy.
According to government data, the economy contracted in May for the first time since August 2009, with weaker manufacturing, lower exports to top trade partner Brazil and erratic economic policies taking their toll.
Analysts polled by the central bank expect the government to report a GDP expansion of 3.1% in 2012, a major slowdown from the rapid growth seen in recent years.
GDP expanded at an average annual pace of 7.6% between 2003 and 2010, and growth last year was up 8.9%, according to the government. UTDT's diffusion index jumped to 70% July, up from 50% a month earlier.
That indicates that seven of the 10 series that constitute the index expanded and the other three contracted.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the biggest drop in activity came in the categories of land earmarked for construction and consumer confidence.The biggest gains were in real estate closings, bankruptcy proceedings, and metalworks, UTDT said.
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UTDT's leading indicators index rose 0.3% on the month to 184.73 in July, but was down 15.7% on the year.The rise was the first since March and just the second month-on-month gain seen over the past nine months, UTDT said.
UTDT's index started to decline sharply in October 2011 as economic activity stalled. UTDT said that the chance that the economy has hit an inflection point and will enter an expansionary phase over the next six months is 21.5%.
The index is conceptually similar to the Conference Board index in the U.S., which tries to predict turning points in the economy.
According to government data, the economy contracted in May for the first time since August 2009, with weaker manufacturing, lower exports to top trade partner Brazil and erratic economic policies taking their toll.
Analysts polled by the central bank expect the government to report a GDP expansion of 3.1% in 2012, a major slowdown from the rapid growth seen in recent years.
GDP expanded at an average annual pace of 7.6% between 2003 and 2010, and growth last year was up 8.9%, according to the government. UTDT's diffusion index jumped to 70% July, up from 50% a month earlier.
That indicates that seven of the 10 series that constitute the index expanded and the other three contracted.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the biggest drop in activity came in the categories of land earmarked for construction and consumer confidence.The biggest gains were in real estate closings, bankruptcy proceedings, and metalworks, UTDT said.
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