BUENOS AIRES -(Dow Jones)- Argentina's national statistics agency, Indec, is expected to report a moderation in economic activity in February, owing to a downturn in construction and industrial output.
Indec's economic-activity indicator, known by its Spanish acronym as Emae, probably rose 4.5% on the year in February, according to the median estimate of more than 50 banks, economic research firms and universities surveyed by the Central Bank of Argentina.
Recent data point to less robust economic activity that month. Construction activity contracted 4.5% on the year and 6.5% on the month in February.
Industrial production fell 0.8% from February 2011, and was down 1.4% from January. Indec is scheduled to publish Emae, which encompasses most of the components used to calculate quarterly gross domestic product, at 3:00 p.m. EDT Monday.
Emae is thought to overstate economic growth due to the widespread belief among economists that Indec under-reports inflation by a significant margin.
Most economists think annual inflation is between 20% and 25%, while Indec's latest estimate was 9.8%.
The economy grew 8.9% in 2011, thanks to a surge in government spending in the run-up to October's elections, lax monetary policy and as consumers splashed out on durable goods like cars.
The economy is expected to grow at a slower pace this year due in part to foreign exchange and import controls. The central bank's latest estimate puts GDP growth at 6% this year, though many private sector forecasters are much less bullish.
"We expect activity to firm throughout [the second half of 2012] on the back of added fiscal and monetary policy stimulus and the recovery of regional economies, primarily Brazil," Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos said in a note.
nasdaq.com
Indec's economic-activity indicator, known by its Spanish acronym as Emae, probably rose 4.5% on the year in February, according to the median estimate of more than 50 banks, economic research firms and universities surveyed by the Central Bank of Argentina.
Recent data point to less robust economic activity that month. Construction activity contracted 4.5% on the year and 6.5% on the month in February.
Industrial production fell 0.8% from February 2011, and was down 1.4% from January. Indec is scheduled to publish Emae, which encompasses most of the components used to calculate quarterly gross domestic product, at 3:00 p.m. EDT Monday.
Emae is thought to overstate economic growth due to the widespread belief among economists that Indec under-reports inflation by a significant margin.
Most economists think annual inflation is between 20% and 25%, while Indec's latest estimate was 9.8%.
The economy grew 8.9% in 2011, thanks to a surge in government spending in the run-up to October's elections, lax monetary policy and as consumers splashed out on durable goods like cars.
The economy is expected to grow at a slower pace this year due in part to foreign exchange and import controls. The central bank's latest estimate puts GDP growth at 6% this year, though many private sector forecasters are much less bullish.
"We expect activity to firm throughout [the second half of 2012] on the back of added fiscal and monetary policy stimulus and the recovery of regional economies, primarily Brazil," Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos said in a note.
nasdaq.com
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