WASHINGTON, DISTRITO DE COLUMBIA -- (Marketwire) -- 05/13/10 -- Dr. Yannis Papantoniou, antiguo ministro de finanzas de Grecia y el Dr. Alexander Mirtchev, presidente de Krull Corp., analizaron el impacto del plan de garantía europeo en desarrollo para abordar los problemas de la deuda de Grecia en el futuro de la moneda europea única. La pregunta principal subrayando el debate fue el impacto del fondo de garantía, por un valor de más de 750 mil millones de euros (cerca de $1 billón – un millón de millones) que los países miembros de la Unión Europea y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) acordaron a raíz de la crisis de deuda de Grecia.
El Dr. Papantoniou considera que, a pesar de las dudas expresadas con respecto a la capacidad de Grecia de implementar las medidas de austeridad, mantener el euro es decisivo para la salud económica futura del país. Según el Dr. Papantoniou, "Sería un desastre económico si Grecia abandona el euro, y Grecia estaría formalmente en bancarrota. Si Grecia pudo recuperarse de un déficit de 12% en 1993, podemos utilizar las condiciones de estabilidad del euro y hacerlo una vez más, entonces la economía se recuperó en un 7%". Indicó que las acciones de la Unión Europea infundirán confianza, "y la confianza puede ayudar a la economía". Sin embargo, "lo que requerimos es un mecanismo institucional permanente en el lado fiscal y en el lado de fianza a fin de convencer a los mercados que Europa tiene la voluntad de sobrevivir".
El Dr. Mirtchev indicó que las garantías de la Unión Europea son importantes para el desarrollo del proyecto europeo total, que a cambio las hace globalmente relevantes, en particular para una seguridad financiera más amplia. "Incluso la manera en la que sean introducidas confirma las consideraciones económicas así como políticas". Las medidas firmes y decididas, y a pesar de opiniones contrarias, relativamente rápidas podrían calmar las aguas a mediano plazo para las economías más débiles en Europa y ofrecer una plataforma para la transformación adicional de la eurozona. Los desarrollos subsecuentes pueden ser "inestables, habrá un sube y baja". A pesar de las especulaciones, no parece que los países europeos readoptarían sus propias monedas, aunque las preguntas importantes para la eurozona continúan abordándose.
Los compromisos sin precedentes de los miembros de la Unión Europea, según el ministro Papantoniou, destacan las preguntas con relación a las nuevas dimensiones de la integración europea. "La unión monetaria no es una unión política, no se puede sostener una unión monetaria únicamente con un Banco Central, sin mecanismos para los estados más débiles". Sin embargo indicó que la institución de tales mecanismos "dará un gran paso hacia adelante en la integración europea. Habrá una gran lucha en los próximos meses y años hasta que punto la eurozona puede evolucionar en una unidad política y económica completamente desarrollada. Si lo hace sobrevivirá, de lo contrario enfrentará el peligro de disolución o rotura".
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Monday, October 11, 2010
World Bank Says Reduced Spending in Latin America Can Help Tame Currencies
Latin American governments should reduce spending to temper currency gains and allow central bankers to pursue lower interest rates, the World Bank´s chief economist for the region said.
Augusto de la Torre, in an Oct. 9 interview from Washington, said the region cannot continue on a “consumption binge forever” that forces central banks to carry the burden of inflation control and ends up attracting dollar inflows.
“It would be very useful to rein in fiscal spending, creating space for investment through higher government savings,” said de la Torre, who was Ecuador’s central bank president from 1993 to 1997. Lower government spending would “generate the kind of savings that help relieve pressure on central banks and should help ease some appreciation of the currency.”
Five of seven Latin American currencies tracked by Bloomberg strengthened against the dollar this year, led by a 14.5 percent surge by Colombia’s peso. Political leaders in the region have few incentives to curb spending because upcoming elections in several countries and inflows of cheap cash make it more attractive to increase borrowing, de la Torre said.
In Brazil, the budget deficit widened to 3.4 percent of gross domestic product in the 12 month through August from a record low 1.23 percent in October 2008, according to central bank figures. In Peru, the fastest-growing major economy in South America, external short term debt jumped to $6 billion in June after reaching a two-year low of $4.2 billion in September 2009.
Budget Deficits
“There’s room to borrow and money is available now because it’s flowing to the region in good conditions,” said de la Torre, who has a doctorate in economics from the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana. “Rich countries have large fiscal deficits so people wonder: Why do we have to tighten if everybody is loosening.”
Policy makers in Brazil, Latin America’s biggest economy, increased this year the benchmark interest rate to 10.75 percent from a record low 8.75 percent to rein in consumer prices. Traders expect the bank will have to further raise the overnight rate next year to keep inflation in check, according to Bloomberg estimates based on interest rate futures.
Policy makers in Chile, who have raised the overnight rate this year by two percentage points to 2.5 percent, are expected to increase borrowing costs by at least another 25 basis points when they meet Oct. 14, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey 17 economists.
Latin American countries may grow an average 5.4 percent this year while a swing from risk aversion to risk appetite is boosting capital inflows to emerging markets, helping strengthen their currencies, the World Bank said in a report last week.
Advanced economies’ growth will slow to 2.2 percent next year, from 2.7 percent this year, while emerging markets are expected to grow 7.1 percent this year and 6.4 percent next year, the International Monetary Fund said Oct. 6.
“Whether you’re on the left or the right, you don’t want to create overvalued currencies,” de la Torre said.
Source: bloomberg.net
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Gold miners rush to Latin America as prices soar
By Mica Rosenberg and Diana Delgado
MEXICO CITY/BOGOTA
(Reuters) - Mining companies are ramping up gold exploration in Latin America as areas before seen as risky, like southern Mexico and Colombia, are now glittering with new projects as precious metals prices soar.
Exploration budgets, the first thing mining companies slashed during the financial crisis, plummeted 42 percent from 2008 to 2009, the largest one-year decline in two decades, according to consultancy Metals Economics Group (MEG).
But the rebound has been quick in mining-friendly countries like Mexico, Chile, Peru and Argentina. The region won 26 percent of global exploration investment last year, the largest slice since 2001, MEG said in a report.
"Latin America is the No. 1 spot for junior companies to be exploring. They have a long mining history ... and geologically it's very prospective ground," said Brent Cook, a U.S.-based independent mining analyst.
Investors are still shying away from Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez has gone on nationalization sprees, as well as parts of Central America where communities and environmental groups oppose mines.
That leaves other countries in the region to benefit from record high gold prices, which peaked above $1,300 per troy ounce this month, boosted by a tumbling dollar.
"The gold price changed considerably the perspective of investors in exploration in Mexico," Arturo Bonillas, president of Canada's Timmins Gold Corp (TMM.V), told Reuters.
Timmins' stock price plunged 83 percent from March 2008 to December 2008 at the height of the crisis, but shares have since bounced back. The company will produce around 100,000 troy ounces of gold a year in northern Mexico, he said.
Gold output in Mexico, already a major copper and silver producer, has grown three-fold since 2003 with the country now producing 2 million troy ounces (62.4 tonnes) a year. Mexico has 738 mining exploration projects in operation and more than 60 percent are digging for precious metals.
Much of that growth will be driven by Goldcorp's (G.TO) massive Penasquito project. Even tycoon Carlos Slim, the world's richest man, is cashing in on the excitement by expanding mining at his Grupo Carso (GCARSOA1.MX) conglomerate.
LESS RISKY
The money is flowing to places considered too risky in the past, including poor states in southern Mexico and to Colombia, which is recovering from decades of guerrilla war and drug violence.
"Chiapas and Oaxaca (in southern Mexico) have historically been underplayed by the exploration community," said mining expert Peter Megaw. Now some junior exploration companies have found "bonanza grade" gold in the south and others are taking notice, he added.
Investment continues, with exploration spending in Mexico expected to balloon to between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion over the next three years, despite concerns about spiraling drug violence in Mexico. Some exploration companies have left dangerous areas where cartels operate.
In Colombia, gold deposits under-explored for years are attracting miners after security fears ebbed under ex-President Alvaro Uribe. Before 1937, when decades of conflict began, Colombia was South America's top gold producer.
"The business climate and security is improving every day," said Michael Johnson, the chief operating officer at Calvista Gold Corp, soon to be listed on the Toronto stock exchange.
Calvista has an advanced exploration project on 400 acres (160 hectares) in northeastern Colombia, a region were Canada's Greystar Resources (GSL.TO), Ventana Gold (VEN.TO) and Galway Resources Ltd (GWY.V) already have a strong presence.
Colombia's mining regulator, Ingeominas, has granted more than 1,600 gold exploration titles since 2004. Some 60 large and junior-sized gold companies are looking for gold and other precious metals in jungle-covered mountains, with juniors investing around $200 million per year.
"Colombia is an unexplored country due to the violence," national mining association director Arturo Quiros said.
Excluding exploration, the Colombian gold industry could attract as much as $4 billion in investment over the next 10 years as companies develop the mines, Quiros said.
Argentina and Peru, both stable for foreign investors, are also reaping the rewards of the gold boom. Argentina's mining chamber expects gold production to increase 21 percent this year from 2009, reaching more than 2 million troy ounces.
The region's losers will likely be Venezuela and Bolivia, known for government takeovers of private assets.
Venezuela has rich gold veins but the only big private miner operating in the country is Russian-Canadian company Rusoro (RML.V). According to official statistics, formal miners produce about 192,000 troy ounces of gold a year (6 tonnes) in Venezuela, while the informal sector may produce twice that. The country's reserves are likely more than 11.6 million troy ounces (360 tonnes), the central bank says.
"I don't think we would consider operating in Venezuela because of the pollical risk," said Tim Haldane, senior vice president at Canada's Agnico-Eagle (AEM.TO), which runs the large Pinos Altos mine in Mexico.
(Additional reporting by Eduardo Garcia in Buenos Aires, Patricia Velez in Lima and Daniel Wallis in Caracas; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
Source: www.bx.businessweek.com
MEXICO CITY/BOGOTA
(Reuters) - Mining companies are ramping up gold exploration in Latin America as areas before seen as risky, like southern Mexico and Colombia, are now glittering with new projects as precious metals prices soar.
Exploration budgets, the first thing mining companies slashed during the financial crisis, plummeted 42 percent from 2008 to 2009, the largest one-year decline in two decades, according to consultancy Metals Economics Group (MEG).
But the rebound has been quick in mining-friendly countries like Mexico, Chile, Peru and Argentina. The region won 26 percent of global exploration investment last year, the largest slice since 2001, MEG said in a report.
"Latin America is the No. 1 spot for junior companies to be exploring. They have a long mining history ... and geologically it's very prospective ground," said Brent Cook, a U.S.-based independent mining analyst.
Investors are still shying away from Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez has gone on nationalization sprees, as well as parts of Central America where communities and environmental groups oppose mines.
That leaves other countries in the region to benefit from record high gold prices, which peaked above $1,300 per troy ounce this month, boosted by a tumbling dollar.
"The gold price changed considerably the perspective of investors in exploration in Mexico," Arturo Bonillas, president of Canada's Timmins Gold Corp (TMM.V), told Reuters.
Timmins' stock price plunged 83 percent from March 2008 to December 2008 at the height of the crisis, but shares have since bounced back. The company will produce around 100,000 troy ounces of gold a year in northern Mexico, he said.
Gold output in Mexico, already a major copper and silver producer, has grown three-fold since 2003 with the country now producing 2 million troy ounces (62.4 tonnes) a year. Mexico has 738 mining exploration projects in operation and more than 60 percent are digging for precious metals.
Much of that growth will be driven by Goldcorp's (G.TO) massive Penasquito project. Even tycoon Carlos Slim, the world's richest man, is cashing in on the excitement by expanding mining at his Grupo Carso (GCARSOA1.MX) conglomerate.
LESS RISKY
The money is flowing to places considered too risky in the past, including poor states in southern Mexico and to Colombia, which is recovering from decades of guerrilla war and drug violence.
"Chiapas and Oaxaca (in southern Mexico) have historically been underplayed by the exploration community," said mining expert Peter Megaw. Now some junior exploration companies have found "bonanza grade" gold in the south and others are taking notice, he added.
Investment continues, with exploration spending in Mexico expected to balloon to between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion over the next three years, despite concerns about spiraling drug violence in Mexico. Some exploration companies have left dangerous areas where cartels operate.
In Colombia, gold deposits under-explored for years are attracting miners after security fears ebbed under ex-President Alvaro Uribe. Before 1937, when decades of conflict began, Colombia was South America's top gold producer.
"The business climate and security is improving every day," said Michael Johnson, the chief operating officer at Calvista Gold Corp, soon to be listed on the Toronto stock exchange.
Calvista has an advanced exploration project on 400 acres (160 hectares) in northeastern Colombia, a region were Canada's Greystar Resources (GSL.TO), Ventana Gold (VEN.TO) and Galway Resources Ltd (GWY.V) already have a strong presence.
Colombia's mining regulator, Ingeominas, has granted more than 1,600 gold exploration titles since 2004. Some 60 large and junior-sized gold companies are looking for gold and other precious metals in jungle-covered mountains, with juniors investing around $200 million per year.
"Colombia is an unexplored country due to the violence," national mining association director Arturo Quiros said.
Excluding exploration, the Colombian gold industry could attract as much as $4 billion in investment over the next 10 years as companies develop the mines, Quiros said.
Argentina and Peru, both stable for foreign investors, are also reaping the rewards of the gold boom. Argentina's mining chamber expects gold production to increase 21 percent this year from 2009, reaching more than 2 million troy ounces.
The region's losers will likely be Venezuela and Bolivia, known for government takeovers of private assets.
Venezuela has rich gold veins but the only big private miner operating in the country is Russian-Canadian company Rusoro (RML.V). According to official statistics, formal miners produce about 192,000 troy ounces of gold a year (6 tonnes) in Venezuela, while the informal sector may produce twice that. The country's reserves are likely more than 11.6 million troy ounces (360 tonnes), the central bank says.
"I don't think we would consider operating in Venezuela because of the pollical risk," said Tim Haldane, senior vice president at Canada's Agnico-Eagle (AEM.TO), which runs the large Pinos Altos mine in Mexico.
(Additional reporting by Eduardo Garcia in Buenos Aires, Patricia Velez in Lima and Daniel Wallis in Caracas; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
Source: www.bx.businessweek.com
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