Chávez should get credit for economic miracle

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s critics have taken advantage of his nearly three-week absence for treatment of an undisclosed illness in Cuba to blame him for all kinds of misdeeds, but it’s time to give him credit for having performed a true economic miracle in his country.

I’m not kidding. What Chávez has done in Venezuela over the past 12 years is nothing short of an economic miracle: despite benefiting from the biggest oil boom in Venezuela’s history, he has somehow managed to turn the country into shambles.

Slowing Inflation Unifies Traders’, Economists’ Rate Bets: Mexico Credit

Mexican traders and economists are pushing back their forecasts for interest-rate increases to next year, reaching a consensus for the first time in eight months as inflation slows in Latin America’s second-biggest economy.

Yields on the 28-day interbank rate futures due in January, known as TIIE, dropped 15 basis points, or 0.15 percentage point, in the past month to 4.99 percent, indicating traders are betting central bank Governor Agustin Carstens will wait until that month to raise the benchmark rate. Economists moved their forecast for a rate boost to March from January, according to a survey by Citigroup Inc.’s Banamex unit on June 20.

Biggest Bond Rally in 10 Months Fueled by Slowing Inflation: Mexico Credit

Mexican bonds are posting their biggest gain in 10 months on speculation slowing inflation will prompt the central bank to keep interest rates at a record low.

The yield on the government’s notes due in 2024 dropped 22 basis points in the five days ending June 24, the biggest weekly slide since August, to 7.07 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In Brazil, yields on the country’s real- denominated bonds maturing in 2021 climbed nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, during the same period, to 12.41 percent.

Analysis: "Lulismo" appeals in Latin America but hard to copy

(Reuters) - It was a political pilgrimage that surprised no one.

Within days of winning Peru's presidential election, Ollanta Humala flew to Brazil to learn more about its success over the past decade and meet former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who inspired Humala's journey from the radical left toward the political center.

China Fuels Latin America’s Biggest Debt Rally by Financing Ecuador Budget

Ecuador’s bonds are rewarding investors with the best performance in Latin America as Chinese loans and higher oil prices boost confidence in the economy two years after the country defaulted on $3.2 billion in debt.

Ecuadorean dollar debt has returned 13 percent this year, compared with 5.2 percent for Latin American sovereigns on average, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Yields on bonds due 2015 fell 238 basis points, or 2.38 percentage points, this year to 9.59 percent. Similar maturity Brazilian bonds yield 1.9 percent, down 97 basis points from the end of December.

Mexico Prices Unexpectedly Fell 0.05% in First Half of June Led by Food

Mexico’s consumer prices unexpectedly declined in the first half of June, dragged down by food and beverage costs in Latin America’s second-biggest economy.

Prices fell 0.05 percent in the first two weeks of the month, the central bank said in a report posted on its website today. Economists forecast a 0.11 percent rise, according to the median estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Hedge Funds Pare Bullish Peso Bets as Record Rally Fizzles: Mexico Credit

Hedge funds and other investors are cutting their bullish bets on the Mexican peso by the most in 10 months on concern a slowdown in the U.S. economy will crimp demand for the Latin American country’s exports.

Wagers on the peso strengthening against the dollar outnumbered bets on a decline in the futures market by 48,163 contracts last week, down 47 percent from the same period ended June 7 and the biggest percentage decline since August, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The slump in the peso over the past month helped spark a 1.6 percent loss in dollar terms in local-currency Mexican government bonds, according to Bank of America Corp. Brazilian real-denominated notes gained 2.7 percent in the same period.